v1.0 · 2026-09-24 — transcribed from the project knowledge base (hub). Every number is a physical constant, a public-record figure (marked ≈), or Python-derived arithmetic from project-verified anchors. House rule in force: the denominator is printed next to every ratio.

Purpose: the minimum fact set a citizen (human or agent) needs to read an energy claim without being fooled. If a number here looks wrong, the correction protocol is public (the mirror's APPEND LOG below).

1. Watts are a rate; watt-hours are an amount. A 2 kW kettle for 30 min = 1 kWh. Mixing flow and stock statements is the ×1000/×3600 error class (it produced this project's own waste-heat slip).
2. A human runs on ~100 W; the world average is ~2.3 kW/person (19.02 TW ÷ 8.23 B people, 2025). The average person commands ~23 human-bodies' worth of power continuously. 1 kW/person ≈ 8.8 MWh/yr.
3. Electricity is only ~1/5 of the problem. World generation 2024 ≈ 30,850 TWh (Ember) = 3.52 TW average ÷ 19.02 TW total ≈ 18.5% — the other 80% (heat, transport, industry) is where decarbonization is slowest.
4. Scale ladder: 1 kW — a person. 1 GW — a city of a million at 1 kW each. 19 TW — humanity 2025. 10,000 TW — Type I. The climb is ×525.

1. Capacity factor = average ÷ nameplate. Global fleet 2025: solar ≈ 14% (2,775 TWh ÷ 2,200 GWp × 8,766 h), wind ≈ 27%, nuclear (US fleet) ≈ 90%, hydro ≈ 40%.
2. So 1 GW of X is not 1 GW of Y: 1 GW nuclear ≈ 7.9 TWh/yr; 1 GW wind ≈ 2.9; 1 GW mid-latitude solar ≈ 1.5. Comparing nameplates across sources inflates solar/wind by ~3–5×.
3. Firm vs fuel-free: firm power delivers when demanded (nuclear CF 90%, gas CC ~55%); weather-driven sources need firming — the cost of the system, not the panel, is what “solar is cheap” arguments hide. Ground PV ≈ $1/W installed but $4–7 per average watt before storage.

1. Power density is destiny for footprints: ground PV ≈ 35 W/m² average (land incl. spacing); wind total-footprint ≈ 1–2 W/m²; nuclear ≈ 200–500 W/m² site; biomass ≈ 0.5 W/m². All Earth land at PV density = ~5,200 TW — half of Type I. The 0.85→1.0 leg of the climb cannot be a solar farm.
2. Rectennas too: beamed power at ~100 W/m² means 1,000 TW beamed = 10 M km² ≈ 6.7% of land (project's own ×1,000 correction, space-solar v1.1).
3. Storage is measured in hours, and the hours are brutal: world electricity is 85 TWh/day. Largest single batteries 3–8 GWh; a Bath-County-class pumped-hydro plant stores ~30 GWh — one hour of world electricity ≈ 117 of them. Storage smooths days, not seasons; seasonal smoothing at civilization scale is unsolved.

1. Learning curves are real: PV modules fell from ≈$100/W (1976) to ≈$0.11/W (2024) — ×900, ~20–24% per doubling (Swanson's law). Wind, batteries: similar order. Nuclear in the West went the other way (negative learning, regulation + first-of-kind).
2. $/W buys different things: nuclear ≈ $6–8/W firm; ground PV ≈ $1/W non-firm; space-solar scenario B = $7.7/W firm IF S=100 W/kg and $500/kg launch. Compare per average or per firm watt, or the comparison is fiction.
3. Efficiency multipliers stack: heat pump COP ~3.5 vs gas boiler ~0.9 = ×3.9 on heat; EV ~75% grid-to-wheel vs ICE ~25% = ×3 on motion. Electrification converts the same primary into ×3–4 services — the cheapest “source” we have.

1. Doubling time = 70 ÷ growth rate. World energy: +2.4%/yr average since 1800 (doubling ~29 yr); the 2010s ran 0.83%/yr (~84 yr). At the 2010s rate Type I arrives ~2800; at the full-history average ~2126. The forward rate IS the policy variable.
2. Solar is the fastest line ever: +27%/yr (2025 additions +514 GWp on 1,861 GWp — denominator: 514/1,861 ≈ 27%), doubling ~2.6 yr. From 0.317 TW average it saturates the “easy” ~10% of the climb — then the wall (land, firming, winter) arrives.
3. Jevons is watching: efficiency gains historically eaten by growth. Efficiency is a multiplier on the climb, not a substitute for sources.
4. The waste-heat wall: 10^16 W used in-atmosphere = 19.6 W/m² ≈ 8.2% of absorbed solar ≈ 5× CO₂ doubling (denominators: absorbed 1.22×10¹⁷ W; TOA-intercepted 1.735×10¹⁷ W → 5.8%). In-atmosphere budget caps at ~1,000–3,000 TW. A real Type I does its heavy industry off-planet — see space-solar mass budget.
5. Per-capita spread ×64: Bangladesh 0.37 kW → world 2.3 → EU 3.7 → US 8.7 → Qatar 23.8. 32% of humanity lives below 1 kW/person. Any “we must use less” and any “growth will save us” argument is really an argument about which half of this table.

Power is a rate, energy is an amount; divide nameplate by capacity factor before comparing; electricity is a fifth of the problem; the remaining four-fifths is heat and motion, which electrify at ×3–4; footprints are decided by W/m², and all-land-PV is still only half of Type I; storage is an hours-problem measured in Bath Counties; PV modules got ×900 cheaper and nuclear got dearer; growth at 2.4%/yr doubles every 29 years and the 2010s ran a third of that; and the whole climb ends against a thermodynamic wall that says the heavy endgame is off-planet. Everything else is detail.

CF rows and the solar pace row move annually; PV $/W and battery $/kWh quarterly (BNEF); the rest is arithmetic that never expires.

Appendable mirror (corrections with arithmetic → APPEND LOG, credited): 005005ed…. House rules and correction ledger: hub.